The Fourth Turning

[Necron 99]

I had heard about this maybe a year or so back. It's been described in few different ways, but one of the quotes associated with it comes from author, G. Michael Hopf and is phrased, "Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.".

Like this quote, the book described in the video below discusses cycles of history, specifically here in the states. In the book, The 4th Turning, the author discusses historical eras known as the four "turnings". Each turning is comprised of roughly twenty to twenty five year in which society and history repeats itself. The "4th" turning, which many consider to be going on now, is essentially the era called a Crisis and is the period in which most chaos and societal division occurs. The video below gives a brief, yet detailed, overview of all four turnings with examples.

[Ancalagon]

<snip>"Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.".

That's a neat generalization but not always accurate. The Roman Empire had centuries of weak / shitty rulers which lead to collapse, not a great resurgence.

Like this quote, the book described in the video below discusses cycles of history, specifically here in the states. In the book, The 4th Turning, the author discusses historical eras known as the four "turnings". Each turning is comprised of roughly twenty to twenty five year in which society and history repeats itself. The "4th" turning, which many consider to be going on now, is essentially the era called a Crisis and is the period in which most chaos and societal division occurs. The video below gives a brief, yet detailed, overview of all four turnings with examples.

Emphasis mine.
I would like to have heard more examples of incidents from each of the turnings from each of the cycles. Context and perspective make discussions like this very interesting!

Several of the things she mentioned in the current 4th have also occurred in earlier cycles. E.g. The S&L financial debacle in 1987, the dot com bust of 2000 on the financial side which would have been 3rd turning. WWI from 1914-19 and the Spanish Flu pandemic from 1918-20s would have been 3rd turning of that cycle since she mentioned 1929-1945 for Great Depression and WWII was a 4th cycle. The current Crisis era in which most chaos and societal division occurs has some great similarities to events in other cycles. E.g. the current vast wealth inequality present now is very similarto that of the pre-Great Depression years (3rd turning) that was permitted by the government of the time with politicians backed by "robber barons." BLM and LGBTQ movements are similar to the Civil Rights movement, peace movement, anti-war movement for Vietnam of the 60s-70s, and Women's Rights movement of the 70s (2nd turing).

As far as 4th turning stuff through the cycles, I'd say the Civil War definitely qualifies as the end of the 1st cycle since the nation nearly split for good and well over 700k Americans died. However, I wouldn't say that the next few decades were a great era with Lincoln's successor, Andrew Johnson, hating the South and wanting to punish it which contributed to hard feelings / animosity between North and South. The Jim Crow era of the South continued disenfranchisement of Blacks leading up the the Supreme Court's 1896 Plessy v Ferguson decision.

The Great Depression through WWII seems wholly appropriate for the 4th turning of the 2nd cycle. Along with those events in the US, there was also national isolationist movement which contributed to a delay in the ass-kicking involvement on WWII. It took Pearl Harbor to shake the citizenry out of its malaise. The US was damned blessed to have FDR in office to help guide and work through the shit storm of the time!

As for the current 4th turning, starting in 2008, it's not over yet so who knows what else will happen! Stuff off the top of my head that, IMO, contributes to a Crisis includes the continued wealth inequality gap that began in the 70s, the continued unchecked national debt that took off in the early 80s, the financial crisis of 2008-9 with no subsequent punishments for those who caused it, rampant gerrymandering of voting districts which subverts the will of the people, the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision which opened the floodgates for corporations and ultra-wealthy to pour money into elections, the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act in 2013, the continued usage of an outdated and broken electoral college system that allowed a wholly unqualified Trump to assume the Presidency with 2.86M fewer votes than Clinton (N.B. Since I first studied the Electoral College in high school I thought we should do away with it) which (along with Mitch McConnel's help) enabled him to appoint 3 Justices to the Supreme Court for lifelong positions, societal unrest with BLM and LGBTQ movements, the COVID pandemic, the Jan. 6th insurrection and the as yet to be resolved fallout with the former President, US/Nato involvement with Ukraine, the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade in 2022 after 50 years of precedent (abortion rights are always a hot button issue with the public), continued gridlock and unwillingness for elected officials to work together... WHEW!!! And the 4th turning isn't due to end until late in the decade. Hang on to your hat!

[Necron 99]

An interview and discussion with the author, Neil Howe. Much more detail and historical info, but it's over an hour long. He goes into describing how most people, assuming they live a long, typical 80+ year lifetime, will get to encounter all four turnings. If we are in a fourth turning and it is slated to end some time around 2030, then hopefully we'll get to see and enjoy the 1st turning, which he calls the Awakening.

In the Awakening, people no longer feel the need or the want for institutionalized order, they demand more personal freedoms. I think we see that now with everything that's been going on with current events. Too many institutions, whether the govt, school systems, social organizations, media, corporate businesses, etc. are trying to force order, control, and agendas down peoples throats. I don't think most people want that, I think most people want to just live making their own decisions.

I also like how GenX is referred to as the Nomad archetype, I think he is spot on when describes us as "these are kids who are left alone, and they become very resourceful and pragmatic and resilient; and they manage well as individuals and good at managing risk"